As I hold on for the long wait for my iPad 3G I was inspired to pull out my Apple Newton MessagePad 120 to baseline how far Apple has come since the Newton was first released in 1993. I was amazed at how unintuitive it was to use and thought about how our perceptions and expectations of a handheld user interface have been transformed by the iPhone. Putting my thoughts into a 1993 state of mind for a moment I imagined what it was like using this thing so long ago. One thing stuck out like a sore thumb to me: The MessagePad seemed utterly and completely impractical by even 1993 standards.

I believe that its failure was guaranteed no matter how powerful its designers made it. It wasn’t because of the applications or even its form factor, no its size and note taking, calendar, contacts and other apps including eMail capabilities were all fine for their day. It all came down to the user experience. Using the stylus with the on screen keyboard or worse, the built in handwriting recognition was unbearable.  This highlights something that technology companies regularly forget and it’s why Steve Jobs killed the Newton when he took back control of Apple: The user experience matters. A lot.

The Palm Pilot with its graffiti was first, then the BlackBerry with its thumb friendly keyboard and then the iPhone with its quick responding multi-touch screen. At each stage the innovation wasn’t the devices capabilities, plenty of devices have done what they did before them. The innovation was the user experience that enabled the technology and made it accessible. The iPhone’s multi-touch interface made it a usable applications platform and everyday device, the app store just greased the wheels. Had Apple released the iPhone with a thumb keyboard or stylus it would have been just as successful (and boring) as every mobile device that had come before it.

So as I wait now for my iPad to arrive and I read all the articles for and against it I think most people focusing on battery life, flash support or built in capabilities are missing the point. The real innovation that will decide the iPad’s success will come down to  only one thing, the iPads user experience and how successfully it bridges the gap between humans and technology.

Related posts:

1. Predictions on the upcoming Apple Tablet
2. The Apple TV – Apple’s Secret Weapon
3. Apple Thoughts and Perdictions Grab Bag
4. The Impending Failure of the TechCrunch CrunchPad
5. It’s all in the Cloud:What Lala means to the future of Apple and iTunes

1. Read a rumor today that the upcoming Apple tablet might be called the iPad. I predicted it would be called the MacBook Tablet but I have to admit the iPad sounds compelling. It’s too close to iPod for me to like however. Rule one in marketing: Differentiate. My guess is that Apple is registering names of possible similar named products to avoid future problems.
2. I will be presenting “Your Applications from Backdoors: How to Secure Your Business Critical Applications from Time Bombs, Backdoors & Data“ at the OWASP Chicago meeting on Feb 2nd at 6:00 swing by (RSVP Req’d) for Pizza, Beer and Application Security discussions in the windy city.

Related posts:

1. Apple Thoughts and Perdictions Grab Bag
2. Predictions on the upcoming Apple Tablet
3. Reflections on the Apple Newton MessagePad Failure on the Eve of the iPad
4. Chicago

I generally stay away from thinking about CES until the week is up and I can look at the big picture. For all the whining that goes on about FUD in the Information Security industry nowhere is there more hype and hyperbole than the annual consumer electronics show (CES) in Las Vegas.  Here is our take on the events and products highlighted at this years CES event.

The annoying marketing gone crazy technology looking for a problem award goes to 3D TV

This year it seems everyone was talking about 3D TV’s with CNet, Engadget and others all talking about 3D tv’s like they were the second coming of Christ. I’m not sure who’s good graces they were trying to get into but let me say what everyone else is secretly thinking: 3D TV’s are stupid. Despite the obviousness of this, it didn’t stop CES from announcing the Panasonic VT25 as “Best in Show“. It just doesn’t make sense to make everything we watch 3D. I don’t want to watch the evening news, Old School or any movie with Matthew McConaughey in 3D. Ever.

And then there are the glasses. If you don’t have glasses on, then you get a headache. Anyone who walks in the room while you are watching a 3D show is going to get insta-frustrated. Oh and you look like a total idiot. The only reason this works in a theater is because everyone looks like an idiot so everyone keeps their mouth shut.

No, no one is going to run out and buy a new TV for this unless they have money to burn. Here is the big secret however that no one wants you to know, every TV will soon be a 3D “capable” TV and if your TV can refresh faster than 96Hz already (ideally 120Hz), it might already be ready (the HDMI 1.4 requirement might be a hiccup). This feature is going to be thrown in for free by the end of the year and right now is just a marketing gimmick to justify the cost of higher end TV’s. I expect Vizio to be carrying 3D capable TV’s at Costco around the middle of the year for the same price you would pay today for a regular TV. Unless of course  the TV manufacturers try and create some sort of 3D hardware standards monopoly which is likely because that’s just what hardware companies do. For example everyone is pushing their “Full HD 3D” solution which requires shutter glasses vs. the cheap things you wore when you saw Avatar 3D at the IMAX theater last weekend.

The real winners here will likely end up being the content providers who will try and sell you 3D versions of movies you already have.

The totally pointless but yet I want one so bad award goes to the Parrot AR.Drone

You know something is going to be a success when people are already talking about all the scary things you can do with something and the Parrot AR.Drone has all kinds of awesome scary tricks. Like hovering outside your neighbors windows recording video all controlled by your iPhone scary. The moment you can equip these things with missiles is when I suspect the fun will come to an end but until then, I want one.  Unless this product ends up being somehow fatally flawed and not living up to the hype expect every kid on the planet to be begging their parents for one. Parents everywhere are going to be rushing out to get these things too because they all secretly want this thing as well.

The should have gotten more attention because it’s going to change our life award goes to the RCA Airnergy Power System

Two words: Wireless Power. The RCA Airnergy system sucks up WiFi signals and turns it into electrical current. Let me say that again. WiFi signals go in, power comes out. Despite making everyone suddenly get worried that the WiFi signals in their house are frying their brain (it doesn’t, chill out) the idea of wireless power has the potential to change our lives forever. Think about the sort of devices that become possible when you suddenly don’t have to worry about plugging them in or charging them. I suspect this product is only the beginning of  a whole series of new technologies that will branch out to absorb all kinds of energy and convert it to power. Despite the utter coolness and trans-formative nature of this technology it’s getting almost no attention right now. This either means it’s too good to be true or people just can’t believe it. Kudos to Engadget for also saying what was also on everyone else’s mind: The Airnergy gives RCA a reason to exist.

And the best of CES award goes to…

The product that is going to make the entire CES event seem like a distant and pointless memory, the upcoming Apple tablet. According to John Paczkowski over at AllThingsD the announcement is planned for January 27th 2010. I still stand by my predictions that I made back in August as well as my expectations that the new tablet will be called the Apple MacBook Touch.  Stay tuned!

Related articles by Zemanta

• RCA Airnergy promises usable power generated from Wi-Fi signals. Possible? (crunchgear.com)
• RCA’s Wifi “power harvester” (boingboing.net)
• ‘Airnergy’ promises charging over Wi-Fi (guardian.co.uk)
• Is RCA’s Airnergy Snake Oil? (ask.slashdot.org)
• Alt.CES: RCA’s Wi-Fi “Power Harvester” Snakeoil? (makezine.com)
• Charge your BlackBerry battery using Wi-Fi signal (bbgeeks.com)
• RCA Airnergy Charges Gadgets with Nothing But Wifi Signals [Chargers] (gizmodo.com)

Related posts:

1. Predictions on the upcoming Apple Tablet

Earlier this week I predicted that the La La acquisition by Apple was the start of an entirely new in the cloud online strategy for the iTunes music and media store. A few days ago the Wall Street Journal (link) confirmed my predictions by reporting that according to sources familiar with the strategy, Apple was “exploring an overhaul of the way it sells and stores music” with changes coming as early as next year. AppleInsider also suggested an more online future for iTunes but was not as specific as the WSJ.

The WSJ article explains that several of the La La executives will be leading critical aspects of the iTunes service which I think is a very positive sign and one that suggests Apple is serious about injecting fresh thinking into service. It’s a short but good article that validates a few of my predictions on how I think iTunes will transform itself in 2010 and a topic you can be sure I’ll keep a close eye on.

Related posts:

1. It’s all in the Cloud:What Lala means to the future of Apple and iTunes
2. This isn’t going to end well for Palm
3. The Apple TV – Apple’s Secret Weapon
4. Apple Thoughts and Perdictions Grab Bag
5. Predictions on the upcoming Apple Tablet

With the pending acquisition of Lala by Apple speculation has begun on how Apple will integrate Lala into iTunes with many suggesting that this acquisition will enable iTunes to begin offering their own streaming services like last.fm or Pandora.

While these capabilities are almost certain to now find their way into iTunes, these predictions miss that something much larger is on the horizon. Apple didn’t acquire Lala just for it’s streaming capabilities, instead I believe that the pending acquisition of Lala by Apple signifies the beginning of an entirely new online iTunes platform and cloud computing media strategy for Apple.

While Apple has made huge investments into cloud computing infrastructure and services already with it’s MobileMe and web based iWork services the high profile iTunes ecosystem has remained strangely absent from any public online strategy. With the Lala acquisition Apple is putting the online strategy for iTunes on the fast track for a big announcement sometime in 2010.

The details will likely start to emerge by Q2 but I believe that a iTunes in the cloud solution will offer the following:

• Merge your local music libraries with online libraries making your music always available to stream to you no matter where you are
• Create a social network for sharing with friends your likes, dislikes and your current playlist driving new music discovery and therefore sales
• Provide a completely online iTunes experience that will eventually replace the need for an iTunes desktop application
• Provide streaming music subscription services

These are just a few predictions, I suspect there will be more to come as details start to become known. A big unknown to me and something I will be keeping a close eye on is how video content and the Apple TV will fit into a future Apple online and in the cloud media future but one thing is for sure: the future of iTunes is all in the cloud.

Related posts:

1. Prediction Confirmed: Big changes coming to iTunes in 2010
2. Apple Thoughts and Perdictions Grab Bag
3. The Apple TV – Apple’s Secret Weapon
4. This isn’t going to end well for Palm
5. The need for a Cloud Computing Security referee

Have you been wondering what are Apple’s plans for the Apple TV?

Recently Apple dropped the price of the 160GB model by $100 and discontinued the 40GB model fueling the rumor mill that changes to what Steve Jobs has described as a pet project are forthcoming. Here is just some of the coverage and commentary:

• Wired wrote a peice titled “Why Apple TV Must Evolve to Avoid Extinction” and referenced industry analysts James McQuivey of Forrester and John Barrett of Park Associates. Together they claimed that the Apple TV didn’t have much life left in it, that Apple needed to dramatically improve the product to compete and suggested things like a Tivo-like DVR feature, Movie and TV show subscription options and a Blu-Ray player.
• David Coursey blogging for PC World suggested that a “New Apple TV For Christmas Seems Likely” and suggested the new iTunes LP format would be a big boost to the platform. David also suggested that the price drop had one goal: clear the warehouses of existing Apple TVs to make room for a new model that he expects in time for Christmas.
• AppleInsider also supported the idea that the new iTunes LP format seems aimed at the Apple TV with some detailed analysis on the new format and the underlying Apple technology called TuneKit.

I agree with David that a new Apple TV model is coming and I give it a 80% chance of landing this fall for the holiday shopping season. The canceling of the 40GB model and the price drop does scream inventory purge and check out this recent conversation at an apple store, something certainly seems up. As for what this new Apple TV will look like however all of the predictions on what will be coming in the next Apple TV seem to be missing the mark, some in the extreme.

Blu-ray is never coming to the Apple TV

Blu-ray may have  just won the format war but in my opinion it’s already dead on arrival. Delivered right at the apex of physical media it is now set to be eclipsed by online access to video and I predict that the era of physical media is set to expire within 3-5 years. With HD content appearing online from Netflix, Apple, Microsoft and others there is increasingly less and less reason to buy a disc.

With most home movies rented, not purchased, the days of the disc are coming to an end and the reasons for this sneakernet holdout won’t remain for much longer. The final nail in the coffin is the obvious one: Blu-ray does nothing to help the Apple online store giving Apple every reason to hasten Blu-rays demise, not support it.

An Apple TV DVR isn’t coming…yet

Apple has eschewed broadcast media for two reasons. First, like Blu-ray, HD cable and satellite broadcasts have their own complicated and expensive licensing  costs and certification “bag of hurt” that Blu-Ray does. It’s these licensing issues that has kept PC CableCard decoders off the market for example although there is supposedly a PCI-E tuner on the way in 2010.

The second reason is because Apple hates kludges and the DVR is the mother of all kludges (bear with me here). The TiVo may have changed how millions watch TV forever but DVR’s exist to address a problem with the medium, namely you can’t pause and remind broadcast media. The future however is content that is bought, sold and downloaded online with the days of advertising interruptions coming to and end and I think Apple is content to wait it out until this future arrives.

There is one snag however that Apple needs to figure out how to deal with: live broadcasts. Live news and sports are not going away and once live TV is easily delivered over the Internet then you can expect to see a DVR option but until then the Apple TV will likely continue to maintain “pet project” status at Apple. If Apple starts to make inroads to solving the live broadcast problem however, this will the key indicator that Apple is getting ready to take on TV.

Why the Apple TV is Apple’s Secret Weapon

So if the Apple TV is only a pet project today and can’t replace your cable or satellite box because of live broadcasts what good is the Apple TV? I believe the Apple TV is a Trojan horse designed to slowly find it’s way into living rooms and eventually build critical mass. Supporting this theory is the fact that Apple is breaking even on the device which means that the goal here isn’t to make money selling the Apple TV, but rather to make money off of the market the devices are meant to create. Expect the Apple TV to slowly build momentum in the coming months if not years but keep a watch out for the following triggers that will signal Apple is getting ready to launch this weapon:

• Apple addresses or make hints of addressing live broadcasts – pause/play/record for Internet broadcasts will likely arrive at the same time
• Resolves the issues between the Apple TV and the Mac mini – Why buy an Apple TV when you can build one with DVR capabilities?

What to expect in the meantime for Apple TV

In the meantime as we wait for the Apple TV master plan to be revealed you can expect a slow trickle of new features that will keep the media from forgetting about this little device. Here is the shortlist of features I’m expecting to emerge within a year or less:

• Fully featured online application, music and video store with “in the cloud” storage of purchases. (You won’t need to sync up with a PC or Mac to get the most of your purchase)
• Online App Store for Apple TV and MacBook Touch applications
• Gaming platform using WiFi based controllers as well as some very unique games and applications that make use of the iPhone/iPod Touch
• Subscription based rentals for movies and TV shows
• And the obligatory Increased capacity and processing power

So those are my predictions for Apple’s pet project. No Blu-Ray, no DVR(yet) but still a lot of interesting things to come. My recommendation to anyone keeping watch over Apple is to keep an eye on the Apple TV. It’s a precursor for things to come and a strategy that has yet been fully revealed.

Related posts:

1. Apple Thoughts and Perdictions Grab Bag
2. Prediction Confirmed: Big changes coming to iTunes in 2010
3. Predictions on the upcoming Apple Tablet
4. It’s all in the Cloud:What Lala means to the future of Apple and iTunes
5. Reflections on the Apple Newton MessagePad Failure on the Eve of the iPad

Do you have analog devices in your office that are passing themselves off as modern digital devices? It might surprise you to learn that some of the devices you use everyday are impostors in the digital age.  They might be something you bought yesterday masquerading right in front of you or even more subtle. Many of them have seen improvements over the years as they try to hang on but they are still leftovers from a distant era that has long passed and it’s only a matter of time before these dinosaurs are extinct. At least so we hope.

If you are seeking a life more digital and want to help usher in a new digital age here are 5 devices that deserve immediate retirement:

Top 5 digital Impostors

1. The Hard Drive (or any disk based media for that matter) – The first hard drives were invented by IBM in 1956 and if ever there was a device that was in need of a more modern replacement this is it. Rapidly spinning platters of shiny metal over which a few extremely fragile read/write arms fly, just microns away from destroying themselves and your data. The hard drive is an analog beast that has out lived its lifespan. Save up and buy a Intel X25-M 160GB Internal Solid state disk (SSD). You will not regret it.
2. The FAX Machine - One of the last remnants of the analog era that continues to hide in plain sight on desks everywhere, the FAX exists to do only one thing, send paper from point A to point B. There is no real information transmitted, no useful data on what is being sent other than caller ID and the output quality is abysmal. Have you ever received a FAX you didn’t have trouble reading? Alas we continue to keep this dinosaur alive instead of using scanners like this or electronic documents (I have one of those scanners BTW and they are awesome).
3. Dial-up Modem – Sure these things ushered in the Internet age and deserve our respect just like ancient artifacts do in a museum but if you are using one of these things today you are the last of a dying breed and likely still have an AOL email address. Guess what, it’s time to upgrade.
4. Analog (Tube) Computer Monitor – If you still have one of these, please, don’t tell me and don’t show yourself in public either.
5. The Mechanical Mouse – The roller ball mouse was invented in 1972 at Xerox PARC. Surprisingly there are some people who are still cleaning gunk out of their mouse ball every few months. You ever wonder just what that gunk is? Stop using something that depends on moving parts and trade up to something like the Logitech Anywhere Black 2.4 GHz Wireless Laser Mouse MX which works even on glass…just like your roller ball mouse! See how far technology has come?

So how many of the 5 did you have in your office or home?

What would you add to this list? Add your comments below.

No related posts.

Energized by Left-Handed Toons

No related posts.

Does anyone remember Real Networks and ultimately what happened to them? It’s a history lesson that Plam could learn from. During the early years of the online music battle a cat and mouse game between Apple and Real Networks broke out when Real built a player capable of playing music purchased on iTunes. Apple responded by breaking Real’s technology with every iTunes update and Real responded by fixing it with each update of their own.

Eventually Apple won out and customers grew tired of having a working solution one day and a broken one the next. The lesson learned from this story however was clear: business models that depend on you hacking your competitors products are a really bad idea.

Fast forward to today and Apple finds itself in the same position again, only this time it’s the Palm Pre with it’s dependency on hacking iTunes. It’s not even clear to me why the Pre needs to sync directly with iTunes this way as there is plenty of software out there that can interface with the iTunes library. Palm should put this misguided strategy behind them and create its own software for keeping everything in sync otherwise I guarantee you, this isn’t going to end well for Palm.

Related posts:

1. Palm Foleo – Dumbest Idea from Palm ever
2. Prediction Confirmed: Big changes coming to iTunes in 2010
3. It’s all in the Cloud:What Lala means to the future of Apple and iTunes
4. Apple Thoughts and Perdictions Grab Bag
5. iPhone ACTIVATED!

Many of you read about my poor experience with the Carbonite online backup service. After that experience I was ready to throw in the towel on online backup and not think about it until the market got a little more mature. This plan was cut short when my already favorite home backup solution CrashPlan lowered their online CrashPlan Central prices and made all of their plans unlimited. What might have been $169.42 a year limited to 200GB could now be as low as $41.64 a year (3 year plan) for unlimited storage as well as introducing a new family plan for $60 a year (3 year plan) that will cover all the computers in your house. At these prices I had to give them a try and see if they were the solution I had long been looking for.

About CrashPlan

CrashPlan from Code 42 software is an always on backup solution that runs in the background either backing up according to a schedule you set or continuously if you have CrashPlan+. It can backup over your home network to another computer in your house, to an external hard drive like Apple’s Time Machine does or even to a friends computer over the Internet and is a free download for personal use (They have a Pro version for business).

I started using CrashPlan in 2007 and upgraded to CrashPlan+ in Feb. of 2008. Since then I’ve used CrashPlan to backup my laptop to my home server (a trusty Dell server with a 4TB RAID 5 array). I had carefully configured an opening in my home firewall as well which meant that even when I was in the office or on the road my laptop was backing up to my home server.

This was a near perfect solution for me. The CrashPlan client was easy to use, unobtrusive, straight forward in letting you choose what was being backed up with no hidden limitations (unlike what I discovered when using Carbonite). But all this time I had a gap in my backup strategy, what about my home server? With everything I had being backed up to my home server I wanted to make sure my home server was backed up offsite in case of fire or theft. Enter CrashPlan Central.

About CrashPlan Central

CrashPlan Central provides CrashPlan users a convenient option to backup their files online and they offer a free 30 day trial. It’s clear that the CrashPlan team takes pride in their datacenter which is where your data ultimately ends up with full details available on their site. While some of these details are clearly more than the average home user might need I find it very refreshing that they are so upfront in describing where and how your data will be stored. A lot of online backup companies seem to go out of their way to not tell you where your data will live and take a “just trust us” attitude when it comes to your data. The only company that comes close to this level of transparency is BackBlaze which is also upfront in describing where and how your data is stored including an interesting overview of the hardware BackBlaze uses.

Going beyond their physical datacenter, CrashPlan Central also has some of the best data encryption options available. With three options you can choose to secure your private key with your account password, a specific password you choose or even replace your private key with one of your own. The easiest option is to just use your account password but keep in mind that this means that your private key is stored at CrashPlan. While you might trust them, if they were ever subpoenaed they may be required to hand over your data and private key. Choosing a private password is the best option to keeping your data and your private key private. Just don’t forget that password! If you loose it, you loose your data and the folks at CrashPlan have no way to recover it for you.

CrashPlan Central also offers online web access to your backed up files which is useful in a pinch although I found it easier to just install the CrashPlan client and restore files that way.

With regard to pricing, CrashPlan is a few dollars less than Carbonite or Mozy when comparing single computer costs. If however you choose a multi-year plan or the family plan option the cost savings are pretty significant. CrashPlan has a price comparison tool that when I checked it looked pretty accurate.

Evaluating CrashPlan Central

I started my evaluation of CrashPlan Central at 10 PM on August 27th, here are the details of my evaluation environment:

I also have a Laptop running Windows 7 beta (which seems to run CrashPlan fine) and a Intel iMac running Mac OS 10.6 (just upgraded). Both are running CrashPlan to backup to my home server. I also have one friend who backs up to my system remotely. All of this backup activity is centered around my home server which is the same system I used to test CrashPlan Central with making it a pretty good stress test for anyone. My home network is a mix of WiFi (802.11 n/g) and Gigabit Ethernet. Ultimately I have about 2.5 TB of data I plan to backup but I wanted to start with a smaller set to experiment with.

Thankfully I have a pretty fast Internet connection but as I found with Carbonite the speed of your own connection is not all that matters. If your online backup provider chooses to throttle your connection like Carbonite and Mozy do then you are not going to get the full value of your fast Internet connection.

I configured CrashPlan to use up to 100% of my CPU when I was away and 20% when I was using my computer and left it running almost 100% of the time during my evaluation. Here is an overview of the activity I documented during my test:

That’s right, in 10 days I backed up 133.3 GB or an average of about 14.9 GB a day! This is the same set of data that never finished backing up in the several months I had a Carbonite license. The entire time I watched my backup for any signs that CrashPlan was throttling my upload speed and could find none. I double checked to make sure that all of my files, no matter what the file type, were being backed up and could find no discrepancies. CrashPlan Central appeared to be extremely fast and accurate. Throughout the backup I continued to use my computer daily, as I normally would using programs like Word, Excel, Photoshop, Google Chrome, Firefox, Picasa, iTunes, Dreamweaver and even Intellij IDEA 8 to do some Grails development. My computer usage was not light.

The performance of CrashPlan Central, even while still heavily using my computer, appeared to be simply amazing and just as important not disruptive to whatever it was I was working on at the time.

The truth is however that my backup time could have been even faster had it not been for a few issues I encountered while testing CrashPlan.

Issues Encountered During the Evaluation

Tthere were a few hiccups during the evaluation that are worth mentioning. Before I decided to try CrashPlan Central I had already been backing up to a friends computer who was also running CrashPlan. When I added CrashPlan Central as a destination it added it to my list of backup destinations (CrashPlan supports multiple backup destinations). At first this didn’t seem to be an issue but when I started to backup extremely large files (one file was over 4GB) my backup ground to a halt.

I wrote to CrashPlan’s support team and in about 24 hours I received the following response from Renee:

“CrashPlan prioritizes destinations based on which destination will finish first. Say you’re backing up to both CrashPlan Central and a local hard drive. CrashPlan is smart enough to know that it will finish backing up to your local hard drive sooner than it will finish backing up to Central, so it will complete backup to the hard drive (assuming the drive is connected, mounted, etc.), then it will switch to backing up to Central.”

What this meant was because I was constantly producing files that needed to be backed up CrashPlan was delaying every 15 minute my backup to Central so it could back up to my friends computer. It could never finish that 4GB file in 15 minutes so it kept on restarting. Once I understood this behavior I configured CrashPlan to only backup changed files after 2 hours and my backup was flying along again.

The other issue I encountered during the evaluation was with the “analyzing” phase. If you should ever interrupt your backup while it’s backing up a file it will pick up where it left off. However before it does is must first analyze the file to check for changes before it resumes. If this file is particularly large this analysis can be extremely CPU intensive and does not obey the CPU limits in the settings. Indeed this was my first indication that something was wrong with my backup when my CPU would go to 100% for 15 minutes every 15 minutes.

Missing Features

While CrashPlan Central really did impress me there is always room for a few improvements, here is what I would change or add to CrashPlan given the chance:

1. Better handling of large files when using multiple destinations.
   • If CrashPlan always finished the current file it was working on before pausing one destination for another there would be less issues for users with multiple destinations.
2. The ability to manage and have different backup selections by destination.
   • My friends are generous, but not 2.5 TB generous. If I’m going to want to back up my entire system I’m going to have to stop backing up to them before I enlarge my backup set since you can only have one backup file selection for all your destinations.
3. Application profiles.
   • For the advanced user this isn’t really important but for home users it’s getting increasingly hard to keep track of where the applications you use keep their settings. For example being able to easily backup your web browser settings and bookmarks as well as easily restoring them without accidentally also backing up your cache files would be nice addition. I plan on describing how to optimize CrashPlan settings and backup file selections in a future article for those looking for some advice.
4. Better online web access to files.
   • CrashPlan does provide simple web access to your files but it’s pretty basic. A more functional online system for accessing your files with the ability to browse through their contents before downloading them or the ability to package up a set of files and download them as a single zip would transform their online web access from simple a tool you use in a pinch to one you might use everyday to get to your files when you are working remotely. Perhaps borrow a few features from the excellent folder synchronization tool, DropBox.

Product Support

While I had a few issues and questions during my evaluation it gave me a chance to interact with the CrashPlan support team. I generally got a response in about 2 to 3 days, the responses were always from the same person (Renee) who I started speaking with at the start. Her responses were never canned and always helpful. Most importantly they also generally resolved my problem or answered my question. While I would have liked a faster response to my questions this was another huge difference from my experience with Carbonite support. CrashPlan also has a pretty comprehensive set of online support options including a wiki and support forums.

Final Verdict

Before I finished this article I decided to purchase a CrashPlan Central 3 year family plan. The price, performance and ease of use just can’t be beat. Comparing my CrashPlan experience with my experience using Carbonite has been like night and day, CrashPlan Central is what online backup was meant to be – fast, trustworthy and unobtrusive.

If you had been waiting on the sidelines like I had looking for the right online backup solution, look no further than CrashPlan. With it’s ability to backup to just about any destination you choose it’s already one of the most flexible backup solutions available. Add online backup using CrashPlan Central backed by what seems like an fun and honest company and you have all your bases covered at a cost that won’t break the bank.

Related posts:

1. Carbonite – Not Ready for the Real World
2. Closure on Carbonite – How to get a Refund

A lot of friends have been asking be what I think will be released Sept. 9th by Apple. Will it be a new Apple TV? Blu-Ray support? New iPods? the iTablet? I don’t expect any of these things other than the chance of new iPods, but I’ve got a few ideas of my own, each is only half baked at this point but I thought I would share them to get my readers involved in the brainstorm.

Things that are not going to happen:

1. There will be no Blu-Ray support in AppleTV or for that mater any Apple product, ever. Apple is finished with physical media as far as entertainment media goes. It’s clear there will never be a replacement to Blu-Ray because it’s the last of it’s kind. Why buy disks when I can click and have it on my TV in a few seconds? Blu-Ray is never going to happen. Just buy a Apple TV and watch whatever you want without having to keep a stack of discs laying around. I’ve already ripped all my DVD’s and used Handbrake to turn them into movies I could upload onto my Apple TV, why haven’t you?
2. I’ve already made my peace on the Apple Tablet, you can read that here

Things that might happen:

1. Apple is going to announce a new and improved package for albums that improves the “album” experience. I think this is fine but if it’s anything like the crap that you got when buying an “enhanced” CD then it’s going to be a big yawn. Supposedly something like this is exactly what the music industry is working on. When are they going to realize that they need to just stick to the music and leave the rest to companies that understand the Internet?
2. Apple is going to announce it’s upgrading a portion of it’s music collection to better than CD quality and will be releasing many future albums with better sound quality as well. This idea just entered my head. I can’t even begin to explain why I even think this is a possibility. I just see a pattern forming around music quality. The interest in good, high quality music and recordings is making a come back (for example 2008 vinyl record sales were up 37% over the previous year). As far as I can tell I’m the only one who is making this prediction so I’m going out on a limb here.
3. Something interesting will happen around Movie rentals or purchases. I don’t know what, but there is another pattern forming here as well.

Things that will happen:

1. The iPod line up including the touch are going to get a refresher, larger storage is in order but the addition of a camera is going to be the most interesting item. I think they are also going to announce the end of life of the iPod classic.
2. Steve Jobs is going to be doing the keynote

Ok that’s it, what am I missing?

Related posts:

1. Predictions on the upcoming Apple Tablet
2. The Apple TV – Apple’s Secret Weapon
3. Quick thoughts for the day
4. It’s all in the Cloud:What Lala means to the future of Apple and iTunes
5. Reflections on the Apple Newton MessagePad Failure on the Eve of the iPad

I’ve got my copy of Snow Leopard pre-ordered, do you?

One delightful change: Snow Leopard takes up less than half the room on a hard disk that Leopard did, and Apple says the average user who upgrades will free up about 7 gigabytes of space. On my 2008-vintage MacBook Pro, I gained back a whopping 14 gigabytes. – Walt Mossberg, Apple Changes Leopard’s Spots

When was the last time you heard of a new OS install that took less than the previous version? Apple does more by doing less. Again.

No related posts.

Amazon VPC

My next post was going to start defining the security referee concept I came up with previously but something much more interesting happened today: Amazon Web Services announced their newest addition, Amazon Virtual Private Cloud (VPC) which adds a new dimension to Amazon’s cloud service offerings. Based on the information available, Amazon VPC works much the same way existing Amazon EC2 instances work with the very important exception that access to your EC2 instances are isolated within Amazons web services cloud network. To access your VPC instances you create an IPSec VPN tunnel between your organization and Amazon. Once set up EC2-VPC instances behave exactly like a local system on your network would, with whatever IP address you want to give it (including RFC 1918 addresses but not IPv6 addresses).

At first glance Amazon VPC is a significant new offering as it places you in direct control over the traffic entering and leaving  your EC2-VPC  instances (aside from the obvious that you are still trusting Amazon to configure and maintain things correctly on their end) and opens the door to enabling in the cloud hosting of all sorts of applications that previously you would only consider hosting internally. But is Amazon’s Virtual Private Cloud really private?

You might accidentally make the mistake and think that EC2-VPC equals private and therefore dedicated resources but you would be wrong. Your EC2 instance may only be reachable by you over your VPN tunnel but your EC2 instance is running along side one or more public instances and using the same networking equipment. You might be saying this is obvious (It wouldn’t be scalable for Amazon if it didn’t) but for most the definition of “private cloud” means a dedicated cloud computing environment where CPU, bandwidth and storage are private to one customer (perhaps your own data center or a remote data center that you have a contact with). Since Amazon VPC only offers private access but shared CPU, bandwidth and network it’s not a true private cloud. Amazon also has a plan to eventually allow VPC instances to selectively have direct access to the Internet if you wish it.

So what is Amazon really offering here? Is the only thing new here the addtion of a hardware based VPN tunnel and private VLAN? Perhaps and perhaps a better name for Amazon’s service is Amazon Virtual Private Network Cloud because it seems like the network might be the only private part of this offering.

Unfortunately the debate still rages on regarding cloud computing definitions (I support the NIST definitions) and the term “private cloud” is getting a lot of attention because some claim there can be no such thing. I however have a good example of a private cloud that exists today: The HP Next Generation Data Center (NGDC) project. The HP NGDC  is a multi-year project at HP to consolidate the hundreds of data centers they have spread all over the world down to just a handful that embody all the properties of modern cloud computing. It’s elastic, it scales, it’s multi-tenant and best of all, it’s running today. When I was at HP I was involved in several projects to move the SPI Dynamics applications (including the HP SmartUpdate software update solution I helped design) into the HP NGDC. I’m happy to say that move was completed several months ago and if you are an HP Application Security Customer, you are using the HP private cloud, you just didn’t know it.

Here is the million dollar question: HP, why are you not advertising this, you have a huge cloud in your backyard and you haven’t noticed it. Hey Russ Daniels Eliav Levi (HP’s new CTO Cloud Computing), call me and lets talk.

So while Amazon’s VPC is not a dedicated offering and not as private as a true private cloud I still think it’s a good step in the right direction for cloud computing infrastructure-as-as-service (IaaS) providers. VPC might not offer the dedicated truly private environment you might want to reserve for running your Windows Domain Controller but it’s perfect for replacing all those QA labs and various “lab” systems that see very low utilization but needed an additional layer of protection before they could move into the cloud. In fact it’s these environments that Amazon VPC might just be perfect for but truly private? That’s up for debate.

Update: Aparently i’m not the only one thinking VPC is not so private, read Cloud Pulse: Amazon VPC pees in pool, not just on fire hydrant

Related posts:

1. The need for a Cloud Computing Security referee
2. It’s all in the Cloud:What Lala means to the future of Apple and iTunes
3. The next great Technology Supernova is coming

In the world of information technology cloud computing is the latest game in town, but currently we can’t even agree on the definition of the game, much less what the playing field looks like or the rules of the game. The referees, if they are out there, are in hiding.

Still A lot of people are playing the cloud computing game because there is news broadcasting about it every day. Companies everywhere are asking about it because it’s rumored to perform the magical CapEx/OpEx swap and deliver potentially huge potential savings. The emerging players (big or small, new and old) are fighting for your attention like a pack of wild hungry dogs because they haven’t had a real meal since 2007 (the last of the big huge enterprise software/hardware sales deals). The problem in all the excitement however is that whenever one of the players gets to hold the mic for long enough they start telling you what the rules are. Even more worrisome is that they are just making it up as they go along in the hopes that they might be the ones to control the game.

Nowhere is this disruption more evident than as it relates to understanding the security risks of cloud computing. Almost overnight the entire security industry downloaded the latest cloud clip art and re-branded themselves to ride this new wave, but the truth is that cloud computing is a disruptive force in the industry and some of us just aren’t going to survive in the new world. Many are going to be left behind as the traditional information security and risk companies struggle to find their footing. The problem is that there are already a  lot of cloud computing security and risk issues emerging that are not getting addressed and these risks I believe threaten to disrupt the promising future of cloud computing.

In traditional IT you have your security, audit or risk management teams that know how to deal with IT security risks, but when you move to the cloud who takes over this role? Many providers would now say them, yet their terms of service won’t back up this claim. Your companies security concerns have not decreased (likely they increased) and your existing teams can’t simply be re-purposed to the cloud as is. Their policies and procedures have been designed for working with IT assets they own and control but when you give much of that up to the cloud how does  your company address it’s risks?

With that in mind think about the following emerging issues:

• Lack of a common definition of cloud computing has emerged (I support the NIST definition which is being supported by the CSA as well)
• A lot of the information on cloud computing is ad-hoc in a sea of hyperbole and advertising
• It’s impossible to search for cloud computing providers according to a set of business criteria like “My data must remain in the USA, the service must be SAS 70 compliant, and be audited by an external security firm every quarter”
• Nobody except you cares where your data might be in the cloud and your only assurance is your terms of service
• Growing concerns over the “audit-ability” of cloud computing providers and the “just trust us” mentality
• The lack of repeatable transparency between cloud providers and consumers
• Cloud computing providers suffering to keep up with their customers security information requests (a few examples)
• Well meaning attempts to create standards for the exchange of security and risk information (e.g. A6 from Ben @ironfog) in the hopes that there will be an exchange of information
• A very large and growing body of security concerns with cloud computing (e.g. work from the Cloud Security Alliance or the  Jericho Forum) yet no industry solutions emerging to address them

That’s a big and scary list with some very real issues on it and traditional  IT security industry is not going to address these issues anytime soon for two reasons. 1) Because there is no “CloudScanner” or “CloudFirewall”  they can create to solve this problem or sell through their existing sales channels and 2) They are going to be distracted for the next 2 years as they busy themselves moving all of their desktop software into the cloud.

I think it’s going to take a new category emerging in the security industry that is specifically focused on security for the Cloud. A trusted intermediary that will strive to keep everyone honest. Specifically a cloud computing security referee that can be trusted to keep and eye on the the providers, track their security and compliance status over time and help coordinate security transparency between cloud computing customers and providers.

Before we go any further let me be clear, I’m not proposing that this referee be a in the form of legislation or government mandates. This is an opportunity for new private companies to step in and fill this need. A company that is 100% focused on the cloud and the unique challenges it brings to business.

I’m going to address what I think what a cloud Computing Security Referee company will need to focus on in my next post soon but between now and then I would like to know if you think that a referee can solve the problems that are just now emerging. What do you think the company that steps up to be the referee will need to get right to succeed?

Related posts:

1. Amazon VPC, a not so private private cloud?
2. The next great Technology Supernova is coming
3. It’s all in the Cloud:What Lala means to the future of Apple and iTunes
4. Something new

There have been a lot of rumors on the upcoming “Apple tablet” and a few reports as to what it’s going to look like and be capable of but so far none of them have me totally convinced. Unfortunately I haven’t been able to totally convince myself either on what exactly this new device from Apple is going to look like either but I do have two predictions for what is coming.

First there are a few things I think that will hold true no matter what.

• Apple is not going to call this thing the “Apple Tablet”.
  • Nor are they going to call it the  iTablet or anything even remotely similar to that. There is no reason to call this a tablet when all the tablet computers that have preceded it have sucked. Why associate this product with that legacy?
• Release date depends on what happens [edited aug 14th]
  • I thought more about the possibilities and now think that the release date is dependent on which posability comes true. If Apple is pursuing the iPod Touch XL idea, then I think they are going to shoot for Nov. of 2009, if it’s the MacBook Touch, then I think early 2010 is more realistic.
• They will release in November
  • Most of us know that November is the ideal time to release a product for the holiday season. It’s too obvious to not assume that Apple is gearing up to take advantage of this in the hopes that they have the must have gadget of the holiday season. Apple does have a media event scheduled for September but don’t be fooled, this event will focus on iTunes and Apple music and video store advancements.
• It will come with an Ecosystem
  • To support the low cost point they are going to be shooting for there will be a fully baked ecosystem of peripherals, software and solutions announced at the same time. It won’t just be a new iPod or MacBook. Expect that all AppStore applications will run on it and a new category of apps to be announced. Part of this ecosystem means that it will also integrate with your existing Apple products such as a iMac or MacBook as well as the Apple TV and introduce a whole new way of interacting with your computer and devices.
• Hardware Basics
  • No matter how powerful or large the device is, or what types of applications it runs, it’s going to have good battery life, a microphone, camera, bluetooth and WiFi.

Beyond those four common things however my two predictions start to diverge. Below are my two predictions for the upcoming Apple tablet and the reasons behind my thoughts. Let me know in the comments which one you think is most likely to become a reality.

Possibility 1: The Apple iPod Touch XL

Cost: About $599-$699 dollars, release in November 2009

Apple isn’t building this thing for computer users or create a new class of computer to sell along side they MacBooks., they want to create a new category all together that can sit at the top of their iPod product line. To do that they are not going to call this thing the “Apple Tablet” or the iTablet or anything even remotely similar to that. There is no reason to call this a tablet when all the tablet computers that have preceded it have sucked. Why associate this product with that legacy?

If Apple goes this direction and I think that there is a slightly better chance that the iPod Touch XL is the more likely of the two options then the CrunchPad is in for even more of a challenge. I think the idea of a Touch XL is more likely because of all the rumors about form factor and design pointing in this direction and The iPod Touch product line is well past due in getting any attention. This all makes me think the Touch team has been focused on a new product. On the flip side I want Apple to make their new device something more capable, hence let me introduce possibility 2, the MacBook Touch.

Possibility 2: The Apple MacBook Touch

Cost:$799-899 dollars, release in early 2010

This will be Apples answer to the Netbook craze and the markets demand for a lower cost Apple computer. Expect Apple to offer at least two models to choose from with different CPU/RAM and Storage options. Apple will also release some sort of monitor/peripheral docking  option perhaps like this at the same time as an accessory. This form factor and docking station will make this the perfect computer for ultra mobile users such as students and business users who travel a lot.

No matter which option you think is going to come true, either device will do what Apple always does well. It will be a very sexy device that offers a great user experience and is perfect for watching movies on the plane, browsing the web or banging out a few notes or e-mails with an on-screen keyboard will be “good enough” to keep most people happy. Or so we all hope, only time will tell, what do you think?

Related posts:

1. Apple Thoughts and Perdictions Grab Bag
2. The Apple TV – Apple’s Secret Weapon
3. The Impending Failure of the TechCrunch CrunchPad
4. It’s all in the Cloud:What Lala means to the future of Apple and iTunes
5. Mac OS X: Snow Leopard

Have you heard of the CrunchPad? It’s the brainchild of Michael Arrington of TechCrunch fame and despite having created what looks to be a very attractive device that would look great on my couch the device is going to be an absolute failure.

Let me be clear, I’m not rooting for this failure. The folks at Fusion Garage have clearly put a lot of energy into the device but the stars are just not aligned. Predicting the failure of the CrunchPad was not as easy as my perdiction of the Palm Foleo failure mind you. There isn’t just one or two large issues that stick out like the Foleo but rather it’s a cascade of multiple events and minor mistakes that contribute to the CrunchPads coming failure.

This cascading failure effect is best studied in the airline industry but the same effect applies to other complex system and the creation of a new computing tablet is no different. Let’s review the design and product decisions and market observations of the CrunchPad to see the cascade effect in action and perhaps we might find a way to save the CrunchPad.

CrunchPad design

The CrunchPad was originally billed as a low cost, drop dead simple to use device for one purpose – surfing the web. That’s a really good starting point  but how committed are they to this goal? As we read more about the original ideas behind the CrunchPad and the posts that would come later you start to realize not nearly enough. Almost as soon as simplicity was the stated goal does Michael start adding things. I just need it to run Firefox, OK and then maybe Skype would be nice too, oh and put it on Linux, add a camera, some speakers, WiFi, a USB port…blah blah blah… OK stop. Yes these are simple things, but they add up. How did the original simplicity design goal go out the window and quickly devolve into a technology discussion? This is great for geeks, but pointless when creating a new gadget. At the end of the day I don’t care what OS it’s running, I don’t care what browser, I don’t care about ports or CPU or USB or anything else if it just does what I want it too. Don’t believe me? the iPhone didn’t run a mainstream OS, browser, have a multitude of plugs or ports and didn’t even advertise what CPU they used, it just worked and pretty much everyone now has one.

So how did they do in the end? I dug up all the specifications I could find and here is what I found.

CrunchPad Specs

• Low cost
  • Originally billed at $200 the price is now rumored to have risen to $400. This is about the price of a Netbook, not good.
• Intel Atom 1.6Ghz
  • Who cares? Can you tell me if it’s snappy and doesn’t lag? Watching the YouTube videos suggest that it’s not, notice the slow screen refresh and the choppy video performance, not good.
• 1GB of RAM
  • Who cares? Do my web apps run fine? How many pages can I open at a time?
• 4GB of flash memory
  • Seems kinda small, with local storage in HTML 5 or Google Gears supporting apps growing this could become a problem. Oh wait I’m talking like a geek again. Who cares? Can I run all my apps? Do I need more?
• Linux as the OS
  • A big HUGE who cares? I would even argue that this makes the device less attractive. Why? Because most people hear the word Linux and they think “Ugh, complex thing for geeks”. Look I’ve been using Linux since I first complied my own Slackware kernel in 1996 but when I play with Ubuntu or Fedora today I have to ask “WTF Linux people? Haven’t you had enough time to make this s%#t work right?”. Linux is awesome for my server, not my desktop, and for a no brains tablet, I’m nervous.
• Boot directly into a custom (WebKit based) browser
  • WebKit, fine choice. I thought you were going to use Firefox? Oh wait I forgot that I DON’T CARE. Does it render web pages right and just work?
• Small OS Foot Print (100MB)
  • This is a classic example of where a device manufacture takes one of their problems and markets it as a benefit and solution to some consumer problem. What problem exactly are you solving for me that requires a small OS foot print? Right…exactly.
• WiFi
  • Awesome…because without this it would just be pointless. You might want to add Bluetooth (but only if you remove a bunch of other stuff I list below)
• Support for 3g/mobile broadband
  • Nifty, hope you are negotiating a subsidy deal with the phone companies or that the electronics for all this are internal because having a 3G card sticking out the side doesn’t count.
• Express Card slot
  • There is no proof of this except from what I can make out in the pictures (which show one). I hope I’m wrong because of my previous point. Adding this violates the simplicity principal.
• Keyboard and mouse support
  • Why the hell do I want this? This thing isn’t a computer, it’s a handheld web tablet. Oh right the geeks demanded it, bad motivation.
• USB Port
  • Pointless. If this is a simple to use web tablet why do I need to be plugging in peripherals? Violates the simplicity directive.
• Available in 4 colors
  • It should be in any color the customer wants, as long as that color is black. Simplicity! Just because the factory can crank out multiple colors without introducing much cost doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. Is there a market reason for multiple colors? Just because you can build it doesn’t mean you should.
• Weigh under 3 pounds (2.64?)
  • Sounds about right, I hope most of it is devoted to battery.
• 12.77 by 7.83 inches, and 0.74 inch thick
  • That’s just .02 inches smaller than the thickness of a MacBook Air and that thing has a keyboard and hard drive, so this seems a little large to me. As for the other dimensions that means it’s not as big as standard US letter piece of paper, this seems like a mistake to me.
• 12″ capacitative touchscreen
  • I only want to know one thing. Multi-Touch? Yes or no? So far, the videos all say no. Not good.
• Possible video camera and microphone
  • Sure fine, but do I really need it? Simplicity!

Unknown Important Details

There are a few important details that have yet to be revealed, but the fact that they haven’t been mentioned up front worries me a lot. The following items should be top of mind to anyone thinking about buying a touchpad.

• Battery life
  • This has to be stellar, I mean really really stellar. Like 8 hours of use stellar
• Responsiveness of the touch screen
  • The difference between a touch screen that works and a product that makes you want to throw it out the window is so tiny that if this isn’t done right people will be throwing these things out the window or more likely, just not buying them
• Multi-Touch support
  • Yeah, there are patent issues here, but if it’s missing people will be asking why
• Security and automated updating capabilities
  • How secure is this thing? Does it keep itself up to date? Do I have to do anything? This needs to be all automated 100% away from the user.

CrunchPad Target Customer Profile

I don’t really know what the target customer is but since it’s being designed by technology journalist and geek and has been so far only marketed to geeks through the TechCrunch blog lets assume for the moment that the target customer is the TechCrunch reader. I’m sure they know a lot more about their readers than I do so I won’t spend much time on this but off the top of my head I would say this makes the target customer:

• Technology savvy
• Disposable Income
• Want’s to stay on the couch. Too lazy to use the computer in the den.

This does not sound like a mass market customer profile to me, it’s definitely a profitable niche but will it support the kind of volume necessary to market and sell a consumer electronics product? I don’t know these answers, but I’m assuming they are thinking about this one a lot and is likely why the cost has gone up. The big problem here however is most geeks I know when they want to stay on the couch just pull out their SmartPhone which is good enough for them. If they are going to buy something that displaces this, it’s going to have a coolness factor all it’s own but most importantly, be cheap.

Market Observations

This is the big one, there has been a lot of interesting things going on since the CrunchPad was first announced in July of 2008, and in the case of Apple, even before it was first announced.

• Google announces ChromeOS
  • This one is HUGE. I originally was thinking that Google and TechCrunch had been working together from the start and that the CrunchPad was going to be the first device to sport the ChromeOS. Then I did my homework and realized this was just too good to be true. If however it was true it would be the greatest PR coup ever launched for both ChromeOS and the CrunchPad. It’s not too late to make this a reality either and it’s almost too perfect a union to not pass up. The challenge will be for the CrunchPad to fight the built up “technology inertia” they have already created for themselves (blog post on this concept coming soon) and throw away a lot of work already done to pursue ChromeOS.
• Apple reportedly working on tablet
  • lots of interesting patent applications from apple on this (tablet docking station as well as some sort of netbook dock in Jan 2008) not to mention huge rumors around the development of a Apple tablet computer. Apple understands simplicity in design and if the rumors are true will likely give the CrunchPad a run for it’s money. At the same time I actually expect Apple to release a device that is more functional than a simple tablet and not as simple as what a device like the CrunchPad could be. It will also almost certainly be at a higher price point, likely around 800 bucks. This is creates an opportunity for CrunchPad but also means that customers will likely wait to see what apple releases first before they buy something.
• Lack of CrunchPad market ecosystem
  • It’s not enough to just be a web surfing tablet. There needs to be an ecosystem created around this product that is released at the same time. I’ve got lots of ideas on what this could involve but the point is that no one seems to be thinking about it, not good for the CrunchPad.
• Lack of experience in the consumer electronics industry
  • I am on the fence about this one. Apple had zero experience in the mobile phone business and they figured it out. Smart people can do anything. At the same time, it’s not exactly a downhill race for them here either.

Summary to failure

So lets add up all these small cuts and see if we have enough to kill the patient:

1. Not low cost
2. Not holding true to the simplicity principal
3. Too focused on geeking out and talking about the technology
4. Too many colors.
5. No one is talking about critical important factors like battery life and security
6. Target market might be too small to support it
7. Google ChromeOS will overshadow any work they do on their platform and browser
8. Apple rumors of tablet will keep customers from buying and then they might just buy the Apple tablet instead

I think all of these things add up to only one outcome: market failure of the CrunchPad. However not all is lost, I think there are a few changes that CrunchPad could make that would better the odds of success.

Recommendations to CrunchPad

It’s going to be costly. The CrunchPad folks are going to have to throw away a lot of work and doing that is going to be very very hard to do. It’s a huge risk already and massive changes this late in the project are hard to swallow. However when the alternative is what I think is certain failure, the choice should be an easy. Unfortunately I don’t expect the CrunchPad folks to walk away from their work and make such hard decisions. However, Michael if you or any of the CrunchPad team is reading this here is what I recommend you think about.

1. Abandon your OS and browser platform, embrace Google ChromeOS immediately. The simultaneous release of the CrunchPad and ChromeOS will generate so much buzz it will be an unstoppable marketing force.
2. Remove everything from the CrunchPad that doesn’t need to be there. USB ports, express card slots, etc… Make the device as simple as you possibly can. Be ruthless.
3. Focus on battery life, ease of use, security and a broader market
4. Get the cost under $200 dollars otherwise Apple will eat your lunch

So CrunchPad guys, I’m sorry that it’s likely not going to work out. I was rooting for you because I’m a geek at heart but when I started thinking about everything I felt I had to be the bearer of bad news. I hope you don’t take it personal. Invite me up sometime and maybe we can work together to change the future because someone is going to get the web tablet right and sell a million of them, but right now I don’t think it’s going to be you.

Related posts:

1. Predictions on the upcoming Apple Tablet

• Playing with Grails and NetBeans, I might break something #
• Anyone know any Grails developers who are looking to work at a new startup for free? #
• This just in: I didn't notice that twitter was down today, apparently at least one person was getting something done #
• I hate mod_rewrite voodoo #

• If AT&T had blocked google we would all be screaming for real net-neutrality legislation http://bit.ly/KNJyZ #
• My plane to BlackHat lands at 4:00 PM on Tuesday. Have the limo waiting. #
• Brightkite? Loopt? 4square? Carrier pigieon? What's the system for BlackHat? #
• No snacks in the crown room, this new econnomy sucks! #
• DL25 – ATL to LAS – 757-200 – 5D #
• IBM buys Ounce Labs #
• Landed in Vegas, off to the hotel and then…adventure #
• Shadow Bar. RBV. #
• AT&T EDGE faster than 3G in Vegas. FAIL #
• Flights from LAS to ATL are delayed jumped onto earlier flight. Upgrade? Show me the love Delta. Wait for it, wait for it… #
• 757-200 – DL 1086 – LAS to ATL – 6C (upgrade! Woot!) #
• Flight diverted to Nashville, ATL got screwed up because of weather. Fabulous. #

• My 1 year old daughter rewarded my wife and I by sleeping in on our anniversary morning. Best gift ever. How did she know?! #
• Got a 2nd Google Voice number for biz vs. personal, but you can't have more than 1 gvoice # point to the same number. WTF?? #
• Balsamiq is the most bad ass UI prototyping tool I've ever seen…check it out http://www.balsamiq.com/ #
• Note to CNN #
• Note to CNN: Reporting random tweets is not reporting the news #

When Apple announced what was coming in it’s iPhone 3.0 software update it activated a hidden marketing weapon that it had deployed the day the iPhone was released. Was it a secret feature that had gone some how unnoticed? Actually quite the opposite, it was a missing feature that Apple had been very openly criticized for: No copy & paste.

When the iPhone first came out, many of my friends could not believe that the iPhone did not have copy & paste. What was Apple thinking they cried. How could they have left out such a simple feature? Personally I didn’t really miss it, but they did have a point, why leave out something so basic?

It certainly wasn’t the first time Apple has left features out of their products. Some see this as a relentless pursuit of minimalism, that’s true but I think there is more to it that that. Apple just doesn’t release features that are not ready, even if that feature is super important. If a good solution doesn’t exist, they wait until they find one.

As a consumer you might think this makes perfect sense, but having been on the other side I can tell you that it’s not easy for a company to hold features until they get them right. Customers are relentless in their demand of features and companies more often than not will do anything to make them happy. The pressure that sales & support teams and even CEO’s can exert on product teams to add that feature to the “list” can be unbelievable and your R&D team might even run off with the best intentions and just start building it. The pressure and good intentions would be great if it were not for one simple fact: the customer is seldom if ever right when it comes to talking about what they need.

If you are a customer and you are reading this, bear with me for a moment.

Customers know their problems and daily pains passionately and often in great detail (if you take the time to ask them, a lot of people don’t), but they almost never know what the right solution is. This is where good product managers can make a serious difference in the success of a business. They have to know their customers pain to the point where they feel it themselves and then take that pain and share it with R&D where the right solution can be developed (but not in a vacuum! You have got to get feedback from your customers during the design, but that’s a different blog post).

So what does this have to do with competitive strategy? Apple clearly understands their customers pains and what features they can and can’t live without. If they didn’t then the iPhone would not have been a blazing success but I think they revealed something even more powerful when entering into a highly competitive market – the strategic withholding of features.

When you are in a highly competitive market, either one that has become commoditized or one where the existing players are heavily entrenched and have already huge market share there is one word every product strategist has to focus on first – differentiation. Your product has to be better as well but if you can’t find a way to stand out in front of the crowd it’s pointless (for example why the Palm Pre is on the path to failure) . Now I used to think that only new, unique things that you could do that your competitors couldn’t was the only way to differentiate but Apple has proven otherwise. The features that you don’t have that your competitors do is just important and sometimes it’s best to withhold one or two that are obvious like copy & paste.

The withholding of features does more than just check the differentiation box, it takes advantage of several other important tactics in competitive strategy such as pushing competitors to react and anticipating their moves. If you can force them to react and you know how they are likely going to respond you have all the makings of a perfect trap.

When Apple withheld copy & paste (regardless if they knew this in advance or not) they found a way to differentiate that would generate a lot of attention, pushed their competitors to respond because they couldn’t resist pointing out they had this feature. Apple only needed to wait until the attention and demand for copy & paste reached the right level to spring the trap. What Apple’s competitors didn’t realize is that they were unknowingly building the market for Smart Phones that had copy & paste, making what was once a minor issue into a big deal, a must have feature. Everyone was talking about it, the reviewers were all pointing it out. Ask consumers everywhere why they hadn’t bought an iPhone and they would almost certainly mention the lack of copy & paste. Apples competitors were laughing to themselves “Ha ha! we got Apple right were we want them!”.  Unfortunately for the competition, they had just set up the perfect “conditional close” for the iPhone and had walked into the trap totally unaware.

And then the 3Gs came out. It’s Apples most successful selling iPhone ever and it has copy & paste.

As a word of warning to any marketing team, never, ever, market a feature up that you can’t defend through at least 2 (maybe more depending on your market) of your competitors product release cycles. (one of Erik’s rules of competitive marketing – something for another blog post)

The takeaway here is that as a product strategist, marketer, product manager or program manager (whatever your company calls you), when you are competing there is always another box to be thinking outside of. Take a look at your product road map, pick a few features that you know your competitors already have and you know will make a big deal of but don’t stop your product from being instantly eliminated from the shortlist. Pick ones that you know are not addressing the top pains of your customers but you can quickly release when they become a sales issue and withhold them. If you are certain about how your competition will react you might even build them and hide them, waiting for them to fall into the trap.

Related posts:

1. Predictions on the upcoming Apple Tablet